How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine

Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."

• Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
• Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington without results

The frequently changing summit is another twist in Trump's efforts to broker an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.

Less Leverage

Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has warned to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the war.

Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

The president loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.

Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.

Recently, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.

But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.

So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something Russia has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the war is proving harder than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.