Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fed a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”